pendul7ParticipantJuly 4, 2019 at 9:37 amPost count: 280
Hey @weeboy9, thanks a lot for your kind words, I really appreciate, mate! And for your feedback about the hand as well, of course!
I agree with you that big stacks can bully the rest of the tables in those situations, and that most regs will do. But in this exact spots, I’m not sure whether he really would do that as even though he’s got the second biggest stack, the blinds basically could both put his life at risk and I think that’s a big reason for being fairly tight. Also, he’s VPIP is 20% as we can see (I’m pretty sure it’s VPIP) so he has not been too aggressive recently.
But of course, I might be wrong there, and you’re certainly right, my assumptions regarding his open raises are definitely on the tighter side.
I guess my point about this hand was mostly the fact that it could be, +EV, -EV or really close depending on the assumptions that we make. As basically always you’ll tell me of course ! But given the situation, I think I like to avoid those potentially marginal spots, and keep it safe. In low stakes, there’s always massively +EV spots you can take that more than make up for these small drops of EV. At least that’s my approach. I don’t know what you think, would you agree ?weeboy9ParticipantJuly 4, 2019 at 4:10 pmPost count: 2
I had a little bit more time now so I tried to make a more precise calculation.
As I mentioned before I think his opening range in this spot should not be that tight (especially the Ax because of blocker effects) – always given your information that he is a good reg. I think the following is a quite realistic opening range:
This would be 19.76% or 262/1326 hands. With your AQo you are blocking 64 of this combinations so his assumed opening range consists of 198 hands from which he would maybe call with 21 hands (QQ+ and AK). For the sake of simplicity let’s first of all assume SB and BB will fold – we can make a small adjustment later.
With these assumptions your expected big blinds from shoving are:
1. Villain folds (177/198): 89.4% x 4.3bb = 3.84 bb
2. Villain calls (21/198): 10.6% x (-12.78bb x 74.21% + 1.15bb x 2.64% + 17.08bb x 23.05%) = -0.58 bb
So your expected big blinds from shoving are 3.26 which is money printing an therefore a clear shove without ICM considerations. (Minus a little bit for the case that SB or BB – or both ;) – reshove which is very unlikely with both you and villain blocking parts of their already very tight ranges)
Taking ICM into consideration makes it less profitabel of course but I think unless there is a very short stack at the other tables you can definetly shove here. I mean you could increase your stack from 12.8bb to 17.1bb (or to expected 16.1bb given the calculations above) which is an increase of more than 33% (25%). Making the naive fallacy that you also increase the likehood of winning the trophy or at least laddering a bit increases by 33%(25%) supports a shove too.
So all in all I think this is not a marginal spot and a shove would have been the better option here. But as you metioned, assumptions are very crucial of course!
PS: I hope I did not make any careless mistakes ;)
You must be logged in to access attached files.pendul7ParticipantJuly 5, 2019 at 7:07 amPost count: 280
Thanks for your message, mate, interesting thoughts.
I didn’t check in HRC with your exact assumptions, but with almost 90% fold equity, I would assume it’s a jam as well, and actually almost any 2 could become a profitable jam. At the end, as already mentioned, it’s all about the assumptions and especially the gap between his opening range and calling range. If he knows we have to be tight, he can open very wide. But if we know that he knows, we can rejam very wide ourself. But then if he knows that we know that he knows, not anymore… Well, hard to say when to stop.
However, I’m not so sure your assumptions are realistic though. To me, your opening range doesn’t make that much sense. I think you’re giving way to much importance to blocker effects here. If he’s a good reg, I would definitely not expect his range to consist of so many Axo, because he’s still going to get called by the blinds a decent amount and these combos are pretty hard to play, even IP. Much better to raise all suited BWs for example. Also, he’s got 20bb, so he still needs to protect his stack as well. With 40bb+, he could definitely become abusive, no question about that.
Also, I would be very cautious with your analysis and especially the use of chipEV. The chipEV calculations here have absolutely no value. Of course, in chipEV, it’s a jam all day every day, but whether we make on average 2bb, 5bb or 12bb by shoving can’t ever be an argument when ICM pressure is involved.
I’m not saying I’m right, that’s just my point of view. But I’d be interested to hear what others have to say about this.pendul7ParticipantJuly 5, 2019 at 8:12 amPost count: 280
Quote of the day :
“When you arise in the morning, think of what a precious privilege it is to be alive – to breathe, to think, to enjoy, to love.”
Marcus Aureliuspendul7ParticipantJuly 8, 2019 at 9:17 amPost count: 280
Hey guys, first full week without playing a single hand in a seriously long time! I can’t wait to start the grind again, but in the meantime, I’ll try to make the most out of it.
Beside enjoying the sun and the lake, I studied quite a lot last week, went through a big part of the GTO Bible. It feels good to study consistently, I really want to continue like this. I also have a very long FT that I’d like to review. I already went through the first 60 hands, 190 hands to go.
As for the rest, I try to focus on my mental game and mindset as much as possible. I meditate sometimes twice a day when I feel like it, and I’ve been reading a ton recently. Last books I read were these two :
The first is a really great book, similar to “A Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck” by the same author, which is definitely a must read. I really liked this one as well, especially the second part on hope, and why it’s bad for us (counter-intuitive and very insightful ideas).
The second one is a thriller book but what it really is is a discussion about the creation of the universe, about what science and religions say about this and how the two approaches might actually not be two different stories but the same one. Where are we coming from? Why are we here? Where are we going? And so on. Really good and also a nice read to get some perspective to your own life.
I dove into Stoicism recently and currently reading “A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy”. Awesome for now!
Not much else to say so have a good week everyone!pendul7ParticipantJuly 15, 2019 at 8:41 amPost count: 280
Hey guys, small update this week, not much to say to be honest.
I’m still studying consistently, although I’ve been reading even more the past week. I’m still working but bare minimum as Summer is really quiet at work. And therefore I have more time than usual to study, read, and see friends. Life’s really good right now.
I’ll have a couple of days off in the following weeks and I really can’t wait to be back on the grind. I hope we, Swiss players, will have good news soon with the re-opening of stars.
I wish you all a great week!pendul7ParticipantJuly 16, 2019 at 7:39 amPost count: 280
Quote of the day :
“I have often wondered how it is that every man loves himself more than all the rest of men, but yet sets less value on his own opinions of himself than on the opinions of others.”
Marcus Aureliuspendul7ParticipantJuly 22, 2019 at 10:13 amPost count: 280
Time’s flying! It’s been a week already.
Last week, I went back to the grind a bit. I can only play online on Unibet, ACR and GG Poker. Definitely not enough to have a decent tournament schedule (I still made the Yellow $10 FT on GG which is always nice) so I started playing single table SnGs on Unibet and ACR as well. I had great results there so right now it feels like I have a huge edge over the field but it might just be variance to be honest. And I think it’s great to increase my volume on Unibet as in general, people are really clicking buttons and have no idea what they’re doing. I don’t like the software but I’ll get used to it.
I also did my first live cash game session in the local casino which now offers 5/5 tables on Friday and Saturday nights. I played only 45 minutes so a couple of orbits because it was already late, didn’t hit a single hand so lost a bit, but I saw some incredible things. The field is incredibly soft. I’m pretty sure I could be printing by playing there regularly. The only problem is that it hurts a bit to put CHF 500 on the table to play. And playing live is a bit slow for my taste as well but it’s still good fun. I guess I’ll play there from time to time. I also heard about another place where they offer live MTTs and that’s definitely something I want to try as well. It might also be a good thing to meet people with similar interest in my region.
That’s it for this week, now let’s go for a run and grind!
Good luck everyone, let’s crush this week !!!pendul7ParticipantAugust 6, 2019 at 2:34 pmPost count: 280
Back in here! It’s been two weeks but it feels like it’s been a couple of months. Last week, I was on holidays, and that’s why I didn’t update the blog. We went a couple of days in the French Alps and it was really awesome :
Other than that (or at least pokerwise), I must admit that nothing too interesting happened this past couple of weeks.
I’ve been back on the grind in the second half of July, trying to find enough sites to get decent volume. I managed to do that fairly well, and it seems to me that the general field is a lot softer on the sites I currently play. As a consequence, I play a very simple ABC strategy and it works great. Result of last month : +$384. Current bankroll : $4.36k. Still millions of miles from what I need to reach but still really happy with that given the small volume as I had a lot of things going on recently.
And that’s the problem. To be honest, I must admit that in general, last month wasn’t the greatest of all. Since I made the decision to quit one of my jobs, I’ve been planning a lot of things. My personal budget is clear, my weekly schedule needs some fine tuning but is alright in general. However, I’ve been lacking consistency especially in terms of studying, and I don’t like that. I came up with lots of good reasons, of course : my gf is on holidays and is seeking a lot of attention when I’m home, I’ve been reading a lot more, and we had loads of stuff planned (summer is always busier). But damn, I need to get back on the grind and work more consistently! At worst in a couple of weeks, when my gf will be back at work (she’s a teacher), I’ll have a lot more time to devote to poker but I feel that I need to get a good schedule before that.
Also, I’ve been doing my personal budget and I’ll be able to sustain myself for quite some time, which gives me a great security in financial terms if poker doesn’t go well for some time. Of course, it’s great, but I need not to rest too much on this as well. Remember what Arnold Schwarzenegger says about security (I’m not a fan but I like that quote) : “Forget plan B. To test yourself and grow, you have to operate without a safety net.”
No complain of course, I’m simply writing this to remind myself not to become a lazy bastard and to stay accountable for my actions. Don’t hesitate to let me know if you think I’m getting away from my goals or getting lazy.
I wish you all a great week!rye_mariano5ModeratorAugust 7, 2019 at 3:53 pmPost count: 1942
Sometimes it’s good to have a bit of a break from things in order to get a clear picture of what is really needed. It sounds like getting away from your habits has made you realize how important they are, so I think it can actually be a good thing. I would say the main thing is to get a plan down in writing and at least start getting in the highest priority habits daily if possible. Maybe you don’t have as much time currently but you can still work on this. Also making sure to have open and honest dialogue with your GF is huge. Of course you need to spend the adequate time with her, but you also want to make sure she knows how important you habits are to your longterm success. You always have to sacrifice in the present for the future.
good luck!pendul7ParticipantAugust 9, 2019 at 9:17 amPost count: 280
Hey Michael, thanks a lot for your wise words.
I think I’m somehow feeling guilty of taking a break although it could definitely be good as well. But taking a break without deciding and planning it makes me feel bad. Not sure if that makes sense the way I say it. Basically, I feel I’m lazy these days although I’m doing lots of non-poker related things.
Anyway, I’ll take a step back, see what is lacking in my daily schedule and fix it. Talking with my gf is definitely important, for sure, 100% agreed. Maybe I should set some weekly goals again, as I did in the beginning of the year/blog. I could certainly use a bit more structure.
Cheers and good luck!pendul7ParticipantAugust 12, 2019 at 2:23 pmPost count: 280
Weekly update – Summer is over!
Bankroll : $4.10k.
Very rough week in terms of results. But it is how it is. And right now, I’m actually thankful for it. I was in this state of mind where I thought I had cracked poker. No I didn’t. I was just running good.
The important news is that I feel like holidays were long enough, and now I really want to get back on track especially in terms of study. I need to become accountable again for my actions. So the plan for this week is to get 3 study sessions which include each time :
- One RYE video (TMC or Bounty course)
- 1-2 ICM spots (deep analysis, changing stacks, etc.)
- 1 complete analysis of a hand, potentially even with PIO (no need to post all of them on discord but at least one)
Also, I have started recently some calling ranges from different positions and different stacks sizes against shoves. There’s a lot of work there and I will continue that as well.
In general, I also want to become more active again on discord, helping others has helped me tremendously in the past. So back to that as well.
In terms of volume at the tables, it’s not the priority right now, but 3 grinding sessions would be great.
What else? Not much I think. Let’s get back to it.
Cheers and good luck every one!pendul7ParticipantAugust 13, 2019 at 3:43 pmPost count: 280
Review of the day :
Small MTT from last night on Unibet. 12 left, 11 paid. The guy on my direct left was slightly shorter than me and seemed tight. I thought I could fold to the money and decided to fold in this spot, especially as I’ve seen very often players punting their stacks away on the bubble. But this time, no one was making any significant move and players from the other table were really tight as well, they wanted to make the money.
I ended up folding to my own death on the bubble which gave me a nice lesson: the passive way is not always the safest. I made the calling range from BB slightly wider on HRC to include some more BWs and Kxs to make it “worst case”. Collusion also doesn’t work in my favor (one more argument for shoving) and the short stack to my left and I are really close, it takes a hand for him to win to be ahead, so I can’t simply wait for it. At the end a no brainer shove :
Am I results oriented?atlantisParticipantAugust 14, 2019 at 9:18 amPost count: 122
Just my two cents, when playing micro stakes on the bubble most player become very tight (not talking about fish) therefore my advice would be to play atleast a “normal” range sometimes I would even loose up my ranges. In this particular situation I would assume that the mincash is not so important and you will benefit great from the extra chips you can gain on the bubble in your future game. In general in soft fields we shouldn’t take marginal spots but when you realize everybody is playing very tight at the bubble then take advantage of the situation.pendul7ParticipantAugust 14, 2019 at 2:02 pmPost count: 280
Just my two cents, when playing micro stakes on the bubble most player become very tight (not talking about fish) therefore my advice would be to play atleast a “normal” range sometimes I would even loose up my ranges. In this particular situation I would assume that the mincash is not so important and you will benefit great from the extra chips you can gain on the bubble in your future game. In general in soft fields we shouldn’t take marginal spots but when you realize everybody is playing very tight at the bubble then take advantage of the situation.
Hey, thanks for your answer, and I somewhat agree with you. As you say, I tend to avoid marginal spots but if players are overfolding then the marginal spots become definitely very profitable and can’t be avoided any more.
But at the same time, in general, I feel that the very big stacks, especially at the micros, tend to call a bit too wide in those spots. That might just be a feeling and I might be wrong. At the end, there are of course some regs at those limits but none of them are really great players anyway (just like I’m not), and they are all deviating from optimal play in one way or another. But anyway, this spot is a no brainer for sure.
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