Home Forums Hand Reviews Cash Game Hands River fold with nutflush – am I becoming a nit

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  • dangerdan
    Participant
    Post count: 10

    Maybe there is something up in the forum, but I haven’t seen my post so here a repost: Board is Qh Th 8h Qd Ad

    My Hand Ah 7h

    Is it possible to convert it

     

    I just dropped a little and I think I wasn’t tilting, but maybe I became too nitty. I got a lot of AA and strong pf hands, but the postflop development were very bad. So I analyse these hands and maybe you could give me your opinion…

    Hero had a fold to 3b of 100 on the first 180 Hands. AF 2,6; (12 WTSD) looks like “standard tag” to me. And I think, on the limit cR are very strong and mostly unbalanced and you can “see” the hand-strenght on the betsizing.

    I didn’t overrate the stats, he had 15% or from the utg I think he will defend around 6% (on this limit a lot of people don’t 4b the AA,KK utg, so I include/exlude them):

    QQ-88, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo

    [FONT=courier new]
    Board: Q:heart:T:heart:8:heart:
           Equity     Win     Tie
    MP2     7.84%   7.80%   0.04% { QQ-88, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo }
    SB     92.16%  92.11%   0.04% { Ah7h }
    [/FONT]

    with AA-KK:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 7.17% 7.12% 0.04% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo }
    SB 92.83% 92.79% 0.04% { Ah7h }

    Seems clear: but so I think cR is not the best option, because regs fold a lot on them. And I can let him “bluff”. But the problem is, he bets relatively fast and more important so big. So this is the range I give him now I include all KJs because I am “generous”.

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 12.27% 12.25% 0.03% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, 9d9h, 9h9s, 9h9c, AQs, KJs, AhKh, KhQh, AhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 87.73% 87.70% 0.03% { Ah7h }

    But if I exclude all jhJx and 9h9x, I think this is more realistic:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 14.93% 14.89% 0.04% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, KJs, AhKh, KhQh, AhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 85.07% 85.03% 0.04% { Ah7h }

    Turn comes a Qd, and he bets ca. 60%, I think, I can exclude KJs (ofc not KhJh). He bets very fast, as if he has no decision. I think he could bet this with his AQs hands (or KQs), but I think he must have a fd (there is only 1) or sets.

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8hQd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 47.73% 47.73% 0.00% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, AhKh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 52.27% 52.27% 0.00% { Ah7h }

    On Ad river we have 33% if he pushes everything, like Kqs and AxKh, but I highly doubt that:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8hQdAd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, KQs, AhKh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% { Ah7h }

    Than:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8hQdAd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 90.91% 90.91% 0.00% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, AhKh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh }
    SB 9.09% 9.09% 0.00% { Ah7h }

    Ofc I prepared all data in support of my fold. So should I fold here?

    Hand Information
    PokerStars No Limit, 0.25 BB (6 handed).
    Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

    Table Information
    Seat: 1 Player 1 ($33.87) Dealer
    Seat: 2 Hero ($25) Small Blind
    Seat: 3 Player 3 ($68.34) Big Blind
    Seat: 4 Player 4 ($25)
    Seat: 5 Player 5 ($25)
    Seat: 6 Player 6 ($25)
    Dealt to Hero

    Preflop (Pot:0.35)
    Player 4 RAISE $0.69
    Player 5 FOLD
    Player 6 FOLD
    Player 1 FOLD
    Hero RAISE $2.5
    Player 3 FOLD
    Player 4 CALL $1.81

    Flop(Pot: $5.35)

    Hero CHECK
    Player 4 BET $3.3
    Hero CALL $3.3

    Turn(Pot: $11.95)

    Hero CHECK
    Player 4 BET $6.65
    Hero CALL $6.65

    River(Pot: $25.25)

    Hero CHECK
    Player 4 ALL-IN
    Hero FOLD
    Player 4 RETURN $12.55
    Showdown:
    Player 4 MUCKS

    Player 4 wins the pot: $37.8

     

    rye_mariano5
    Moderator
    Post count: 1979

    Please use weaktight.com converter. Or can it not be converted as you say?

    If not then please just recreate it on pokerhandreplays.com

     

    dangerdan
    Participant
    Post count: 10

    Done :).

    rye_mariano5
    Moderator
    Post count: 1979

    Yeah this is just way too nitty.

    He can be value betting Qx, KJ, J9s, and lower flushes like K9s, 97s,67s,56s.

    You’re pretty much folding you entire range if you fold this.

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