Home Forums Hand Reviews Cash Game Hands NL 25, CB GS MP v CO on wet board?

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  • the_kum
    Participant
    Post count: 52

    Party, $0.10/$0.25

    Hero (MP): $35.09 (140.4 bb)
    CO: $43.68 (174.7 bb), reg, no info

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A of diamonds Q of clubs
    Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

    Flop: ($1.85) T of hearts K of spades 8 of hearts (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO bets $1.32, Hero folds

    Q: CB or not?

    My MP opening range is already weaker vs his CO calling range (48<52). OTF my range has 53%. Don’t have a value bet.

    # Range vs range
    -Villain¬†has 113 combos. Assuming he calls with all FD, GS, BD FD+SD and above he continues with 80 combos (folds 29%), so my half-pot cb doesn’t get enough folds.

    *  Same board, but rainbow
    -If flop is rainbow, now villain folds 38%, which allows me to profitably bet even a bit larger than half-pot.

    # My hand vs villain’s range
    -Villain folds 32%.

    * If I have nut BDFD (AhQx)
    -Now villain has less FD combos, so he folds 35%, which is just above what we need for half-pot cb.

    *Same board, but rainbow
    -Villain here folds 43%

    # Conclusion
    -To cb here I need either nutBDFD, or the board has to be rainbow (esp when deep like here). 55% size seems just fine. MP v CO I don’t see point in x-c here, esp on FD board.
    -If I was UTG vs MP/CO, villain range is even stronger (doesn’t call many AJo if any, doesn’t call some T9s/98s), so would just x-f there as well.

    Did I analyse this properly?

     

    rye_mariano5
    Moderator
    Post count: 1979

    Depends on your opponent for sure. Against a tighter player you may not have a bet, but I think it’s still close here.

    Vs a loose player you will have enough fold equity given you still have decent equity also.

    You could also choose to check you whole range here and then mix in some x/raises or x/calls with a hand like this. Like here I think you hand is just about strong enough to x/call.

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