Hero (MP): $35.09 (140.4 bb) CO: $43.68 (174.7 bb), reg, no info
Preflop: Hero is MP with A Q Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds
Flop: ($1.85) T K 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.32, Hero folds
Q: CB or not?
My MP opening range is already weaker vs his CO calling range (48<52). OTF my range has 53%. Don’t have a value bet.
# Range vs range
-Villain has 113 combos. Assuming he calls with all FD, GS, BD FD+SD and above he continues with 80 combos (folds 29%), so my half-pot cb doesn’t get enough folds.
* Same board, but rainbow
-If flop is rainbow, now villain folds 38%, which allows me to profitably bet even a bit larger than half-pot.
# My hand vs villain’s range
-Villain folds 32%.
* If I have nut BDFD (AhQx)
-Now villain has less FD combos, so he folds 35%, which is just above what we need for half-pot cb.
*Same board, but rainbow
-Villain here folds 43%
-To cb here I need either nutBDFD, or the board has to be rainbow (esp when deep like here). 55% size seems just fine. MP v CO I don’t see point in x-c here, esp on FD board.
-If I was UTG vs MP/CO, villain range is even stronger (doesn’t call many AJo if any, doesn’t call some T9s/98s), so would just x-f there as well.
Depends on your opponent for sure. Against a tighter player you may not have a bet, but I think it’s still close here.
Vs a loose player you will have enough fold equity given you still have decent equity also.
You could also choose to check you whole range here and then mix in some x/raises or x/calls with a hand like this. Like here I think you hand is just about strong enough to x/call.
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