the_kumParticipantSeptember 10, 2018 at 9:24 amPost count: 52
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10
Hero (MP): $10.85 (108.5 bb)
CO: $13.06 (130.6 bb); 11% 3b IP, CO v MP 1/11, cb in 3B IP 3/3 OTF, 1/2 OTT
Preflop: Hero is MP with J A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO raises to $0.90, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.95) 4 8 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90
Turn: ($3.75) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
River: ($3.75) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
CO showed A K and won $3.58 ($1.78 net)
Q: To bluff or not to bluff w good A high OTR in 3B pot after turn was checked? (on this runout and on blank river)
A: On this runout, obvious reason here would be to make him fold AK. But Q OTR also gives him a pair to his reasonable AQ/KQ holding, so lets see do we have enough.
-Villain can play like this 8/12 AK (maybe he doesnt cb all OTF, which he shouldnt anyway, he double barrels some), the same goes for AQ/KQ (probably he 3B them less, but lets keep it the same for example, seems reasonable).
-Villain can x back OTT 4 combos of JJ-AA.
-Let’s give him 3 T9s that he decided to x back OTT and that he calls OTR. (might have had ATs/KTs instead)
-Let’s give him 2 more bluffs like some ocassional KJs/87s/A2s that he folds to our river bet, but that is less likely in his range, so gave him just 2 combos
***Your suggestions what else to assign him here?
Villain has 33 combos OTR. If I bet 50% he needs to fold 33% for breakeven bet, which means 11 combos. So he folds 2x 76s + 8x AK (might hero call one or two combo also I guess). So with Q OTR this is obviously not a good spot.
If river is blank, he folds 18 combos that beats us (yes we beat 8 KQs, but he might bluff sometimes and we can’t call exactly), giving us a clear bluff even with a hand with a good showdown value like AJ high.
Would you pick different sizings? Do you just bluff your hands without showdown value and go for x with good A highs?rye_mariano5ModeratorSeptember 10, 2018 at 7:59 pmPost count: 1979
I think it’s going to be very hard to showdown this down as a winner. He’ll likely bet his bluffs then I guess he has like A3s, A5s that you beat so that’s okay.
On this runout the way the action went you have way more nutted hands. He can’t really have 88, TT anymore or many flushes once he checks turn. You can have all those + more 44 22 if you call those pre.
So I think you could put in an overbet here and put a ton of pressure on his range. Maybe you could post a pic of your river betting range. Then we can see how much bluff to value you have and could look into some sizings and hand selections.the_kumParticipantSeptember 11, 2018 at 8:25 amPost count: 52
Here are my preflop c range MP v CO 3B 3x, and my flop c range vs 45% cbet vs villain who has 3/3 cb in 3B IP:
I arrive on river w 52 combos.
-Clear value bet: 17 combos (sets, AQ, 3 flushes)
-Check: 32 combos (12x AK, 6x 66, 6x 99, 6x JJ, 2x 98s) (just x-f here or how to decide if call?)
-Little to no showdown value: 3 combos (2x AJ, 1x T9s)
*So I have 17 value combos and 3 bluff combos.
*Villain has 33 combos, around 10 bets for (thin)value if checked to and calls at least 8 of them if facing a bet, 23 he checks behind and beats my AJ (he calls at least 8 of them if I bet)
??? So how to solve this correctly :)
-With little I know, with 17 value and 3 bluffs it’s easy bet w all of my bluffs. I can overbet and get max with value and max fold equity with bluffs, can go even 3x pot size here.
-Villain folds around 45% of his range so I can bet 75% profitably from that perspective.
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