Q: Call OTR?
A: F+T seems like a good x-c with a hand where I don’t have 3 streets of value, it is not very vulnerable, have some backdoor safety and we play wide ranges. River is difficult. First I gave him all possible value combos, even all AQ/TT, all flushes that were at least BDFD + GS OTF, and 2P+ obviously. He has 40 value combos, so I need him to bluff 17 combos to breakeven (could maybe give some more BDFD bluffs OTF, but not sure if he also bets all weaker Qx here). He can do that with KJ/J9, but it seems a bit too many that he would do it with all.
Villain’s value range:
But if I try to make more realistic range, as villain likely does 3B pre some AQ/TT, and I don’t think he bets this big OTR with possible flush with all AQ/KQ, he now has 31 combos and I need him to bluff 12-13 combos, which is just KJo.
Villain more realistic range, w KJo bluffs:
I think both fold and call are good. How do you guys think I should make my decision, this is NL10 and players don’t often bluff 3 streets, but also they are often too scared to bet thin for value OTR, so probably he even has less AQ/KQ combos.
He could have K9, 89 also, plus maybe some other random bluffs. And he’ll be 3 betting AQ and TT very often pre. Also KQs often too. So I think you can call down here. Blocking some flushes too.
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