sanitycheckParticipantSeptember 6, 2019 at 8:27 pmPost count: 8
SB: 65,486 (46.8 bb)
Hero (BB): 60,425 (43.2 bb)
UTG+2: 51,513 (36.8 bb)
MP1: 79,658 (56.9 bb)
MP2: 41,687 (29.8 bb)
MP3: 73,675 (52.6 bb)
CO: 47,911 (34.2 bb)
BTN: 72,275 (51.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7:heart: K:heart:
5 folds, BTN raises to 2,800, SB folds, Hero calls 1,400
Flop: (7,700) 9:club: 7:diamond: 7:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 2,800, Hero raises to 9,450, BTN calls 6,650
Turn: (26,600) Q:club: (2 players)
Hero bets 18,000, BTN calls 18,000
River: (62,600) 8:diamond: (2 players)
Villain is 21/17/8 5k hands 7-9 handed. Unsure what to do river?carl91ParticipantSeptember 7, 2019 at 5:55 amPost count: 399
The range villain will call your river bet with, will be quite different to the range he will bet himself when checked to, so we have to weigh up a few considerations.
If we decide to bet the river ourselves, we have to see whether or not we have >50% equity against villain’s calling range. In this specific scenario, this is pretty hard to work out, as we can’t say with any real certainty how light he will call down. Does he call with all AA-KK combos? Does he fold his weakest 7x?
If you have 5k hands on this specific opponent you should provide some more post-flop stats to help out with the decision making. What is his fold to x/r, fold to flop/turn/river bet frequencies like? If he is stickier, he might not be able to let go of the weakest hands in his range, therefore it is more likely that K7s has > than 50% equity against his calling range. However, if he has a higher fold to flop/turn/river betting frequency, he is more likely to hero fold those hands like AA-KK, weakest 7x etc.
On the other hand, if we check the river, villain can either a.) value bet worse 7x, and b.) bluff hands which couldn’t have called a river bet themselves.
The problem is, that villain has hardly any (if any) natural bluffs. He literally has to turn a hand like Jc8c, Tc8c, 8c6c into a bluff, and that’s literally all I can think of. Really unlikely he is capable of turning 9x into a bluff.
So, what range does villain bet if we check to him on the river? K7s+? Or does he bet his T7s, 76s, 75s combos as well?
It also depends on your image, and how he perceives you/your range. 5k hands is a decent sample, and if you have a super low flop x/r frequency, then the continuing range villain shows up with will be super nutted.
Without any additional information, I think I lean more towards betting river myself, hope he calls down with KK-AA and worse 7x. Especially considering the SPR and the fact we have just 1/2 pot behind. If we were deeper, you could bet small and fold vs a raise, or check to villain and call depending on the sizing. Regardless of whether you bet or check, I think the range villain shows up with on the river will be pretty damn strong.
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