zo0m12ParticipantDecember 15, 2018 at 6:38 amPost count: 1
today I witnessed a interesting hand while I was grinding. The players were ~ 150bb deep UTGvBTN in 6max Cash game. I would consider both players as decent and not out of line.
UTG opens to 2,5bb
BTN 3b ~ 8bb
UTG 4b ~ 21bb
Flop QT2r (~43BB)
UTG bet 29BB
BTN shoves remaining ~130BB in pot of 72BB
UTG fold and shows KK
Was this a correct fold?
One has to call 101 to win 202 so 2 :1. In other words, roughly 33.3% equity.
I put the button on a range of AA(6combos), KK(1combo), QQ (3 Combo), JJ (6combos), TT (3combo), AKo(6combo), AQs(3combo), and AKs(2 combo) calling the 4bet. Maybe sometimes with some garbage cards he is folding anyway on the flop. Assuming he is shoving all of his value hands and AK as a bluff on the flop we would have around 41% equity, therefore one should call.
However, shoving all AK combination on this board, with given preflop action, is far from realistic. I think we can discount the AKo without backdor flushdraws for sure. Then the euity of KK against the remaining range drops to 24.5%(without any AK) and 29%(with AKs) which would make both calls bad.
Overall, I think on boards like QT2 or any other board with 2 low Broadway cards(Q,J,T) the caller of the 4bet has more nutted hands, since the UTG player does not have JJ,TT maybe not even QQ in his range. Thus making it not profitable, for the UTG player, to stack off 150bb+ on these boards with overpairs.
Am I wrong here or do I miss something?rye_mariano5ModeratorDecember 15, 2018 at 6:08 pmPost count: 1979
Good breakdown. I really don’t like the UTG player’s sizing on that flop. In a 4bet pot he can just like 1/4 or 1/3 pot. But yeah vs the shove, he’s not going to be in good shape unless BTN is shoving AQ often. He could have some KJs though which changes things. As you said with AK I don’t see him just shoving there in a 4bet pot, but maybe sometimes. I think it’s close, but making a hero fold can never be too bad there. If the BTN was more a of a fishy player then calling would be good for sure as he could have more random shit and Qx
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