Home Forums Hand Reviews Cash Game Hands Few Hands – am I becoming a supernit – folding nutflush on the river?

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  • dangerdan
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    I just dropped a little and I think I wasn’t tilting, but maybe I became too nitty. I got a lot of AA and strong pf hands, but the postflop development were very bad. So I analyse these hands and maybe you could give me your opinion…

    Hero had a fold to 3b of 100 on the first 180 Hands. AF 2,6; (12 WTSD) looks like “standard tag” to me. And I think, on the limit cR are very strong and mostly unbalanced and you can “see” the hand-strenght on the betsizing.

    I didn’t overrate the stats, he had 15% or from the utg I think he will defend around 6% (on this limit a lot of people don’t 4b the AA,KK utg, so I include/exlude them):

    QQ-88, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo

    [FONT=courier new]
    Board: Q:heart:T:heart:8:heart:
           Equity     Win     Tie
    MP2     7.84%   7.80%   0.04% { QQ-88, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo }
    SB     92.16%  92.11%   0.04% { Ah7h }
    [/FONT]

    with AA-KK:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 7.17% 7.12% 0.04% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo }
    SB 92.83% 92.79% 0.04% { Ah7h }

    Seems clear: but so I think cR is not the best option, because regs fold a lot on them. And I can let him “bluff”. But the problem is, he bets relatively fast and more important so big. So this is the range I give him now I include all KJs because I am “generous”.

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 12.27% 12.25% 0.03% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, 9d9h, 9h9s, 9h9c, AQs, KJs, AhKh, KhQh, AhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 87.73% 87.70% 0.03% { Ah7h }

    But if I exclude all jhJx and 9h9x, I think this is more realistic:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 14.93% 14.89% 0.04% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, KJs, AhKh, KhQh, AhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 85.07% 85.03% 0.04% { Ah7h }

    Turn comes a Qd, and he bets ca. 60%, I think, I can exclude KJs (ofc not KhJh). He bets very fast, as if he has no decision. I think he could bet this with his AQs hands (or KQs), but I think he must have a fd (there is only 1) or sets.

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8hQd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 47.73% 47.73% 0.00% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, AhKh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 52.27% 52.27% 0.00% { Ah7h }

    On Ad river we have 33% if he pushes everything, like Kqs and AxKh, but I highly doubt that:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8hQdAd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, KQs, AhKh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, AdKh, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKh, AcKh }
    SB 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% { Ah7h }

    Than:

    de.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: QhTh8hQdAd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 90.91% 90.91% 0.00% { AA, QQ, TT, 88, AQs, AhKh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh }
    SB 9.09% 9.09% 0.00% { Ah7h }

    Ofc I prepared all data in support of my fold. So should I fold here?

     

    PokerStars – $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BTN: 135.48 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 22)
    Hero (SB): 100 BB
    BB: 273.36 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
    UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.30, PFR: 19.88, 3Bet Preflop: 4.48, Hands: 173)
    MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.70, PFR: 16.60, 3Bet Preflop: 7.23, Hands: 240)
    CO: 100 BB

    Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7:heart: A:heart:

    UTG raises to 2.76 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, UTG calls 7.24 BB

    Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 8:heart: Q:heart: T:heart:
    Hero checks, UTG bets 13.2 BB, Hero calls 13.2 BB

    Turn: (47.4 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
    Hero checks, UTG bets 26.6 BB, Hero calls 26.6 BB

    River: (100.6 BB, 2 players) A:diamond:
    Hero checks, UTG bets 50.2 BB and is all-in, fold

    UTG wins 96.08 BB

     

     

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