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  • ragaagaggaga
    Participant
    Post count: 30

    Heya Everybody,

     

    just a brief update here with regard last week. I checked my DB on the 15th and had 567 games with a chipEV of 130 for March and overall 111 for the year (after 2.1K games).  My bankroll was 366 buy-ins for 3s or 157 buy-ins for 7s respectively.

    While initially the plan was to build a 200 buy-in roll for 7s I figured that it would be wise to give 7s a shot.

    I realized that I can easily test the waters until I drop to 200 buy-ins for 3s. That actually leaves me with 70 buy-ins to maneuver beforeI have to move down to 3s again.

    While I do believe that there will be better players around at 7s I don’t expect the quality of play to be drastically better and with >100chipEV/game at 3s I should be good to go.

    I noticed a sense of urgency during the first games, especially because my first 2 games where 6x multipliers.  Realized that this is probably a pretty normal issue at new stakes. Good thing is I was aware of it and talked myself into playing my A-Game and don’t get confused/scared or whatever.

    Also dropped tables from 4 to 3 which makes quite a difference in terms of the time that I have per decision and overall focus.

    I’ll post some of my analysis during the next week. Plan to also give thoughts on why this sort of work is actually helpful, what restrictions it has, what things to keep in mind etc. => This way I can reflect on all the stuff I am doing and whether it helps me improving or not.

     

    I keep you posted!

    Regards

    Luke

    bencb789
    Keymaster
    Post count: 1331

    Good plan, especially decreasing the amount of tables when you play higher limits. But after a couple of days you should start playing your regular amount of tables.

    Looking forward reading your analysis.

    ragaagaggaga
    Participant
    Post count: 30

    Hey Guys,

    here comes some stuff that I am working on right now. I sticked to the K75 board above but worked on a flop strategy for my entire range. Generally I will continue to focus on play from the SB. I feel this is the most difficult spot for me at this point in my game.

    What you see is my readless strategy in a single raised pot when I am in the SB and BB calls. Let’s quickly break this down:

    So I started with the blue part of my range which is simply a cbet for value. Therefore I went over the hands in question and checked my equity vs. villains conti range. I wasn’t sure whether QQ is a good hand to check-call flop? It does not need as much protection as the lower pockets. I don’t think cbetting is bad by any means, so for sake of simplicity it’s in my cbet range.

    Next hands I looked at where 2nd pair and 3rd pair: With 7x I have around 50% equity vs. villains conti-range and with 5x it’s below 40%. The plan is to check-call flop, check-call turns with 7x, check-fold 5x on the turn.

    Continued with my Ax hands that have a flush draw here: I had it around 58% equity so I’d say it’s a clear bet on the flop.

    Next I checked all other flushdraws which I would all cbet on the flop. Especially the lower flushdraws, 6h3h, 8h2h etc. greatly  benefit from folding out equity on the flop. On the other hand with flush draws I could easily check-call flop, turn or if villain checks flop, delay cbet and barrel river. The benefit of delay cbet and barrel is that this way I am more likely to fold pure draws with 2 bets whereas when I bet flop, turn, Villains will call with their, say Qh8h twice and take the pot down when I check the river. At the same time I don’t really want to 3barrel bluff here (or in general vs. fish fwiw). Not sure what’s really better here.

    Similar story to FD are OESD’s and gutshots. I’m not 100% sure but have them as cbets as of right now.

    Pure bluffs in my range would be all broadways without FD + T9. Why? I think they are good on this particular board because they can improve to either draws or 2nd pairs on the turn and this way I have more hands on the turn that can check-call there.

    All other bare Ax that are not flushdraws I’d also check-call. I have them at around 33% equity. Here I am not 100% sure whether I should check-call Ax without backdoor flushdraws since I will be forced to fold them on the turn a ton while the backdoor Ax will improve more often.

     

    Lastly: J6, T6 combos are just check-folds here. Same goes for all other suited hands that are not flushdraws.  I’m somewhat unsure about those air hands with backdoor flushdraws though, I must say.

     

    So overall my frequencies here look like this: Around 27% cbets with made hands for value, 24.5% with draws.

    35.5% check/call and 13% would be check/folding.

    Let me quickly discuss why this is actually useful in order to improve + limitations of this analysis.

    Is’s usefull because it serves a sort of a good starting point for further analysis/thoughts.
    It’s also usefull because I learn how to play a board with my entire range, not only 1 single combo. By that I mean that I gain better understanding of what I can valuebet, what hands to better check-call etc. It needs much more work though (especially continuing through with turn and river analysis but also similar stuff for different boards) + can certainly take some help from other forum members ;-)

    Limitations are certainly that my strategy can change drastically based on reads. To give some extreme example. Vs. a nit with 95% fold to flop cbet I probably don’t care about my equity with 42o but simply bet 100% of my range. On the other hand vs. aggro raiser and/or wide callers on the flop I should make adjustments, too.

    So next steps would be try to build turn + river strat. I will also think about adjustments vs. different tendencies + actually do the step before that, which is thinking and writing down what stats and tendencies to look after in this spot, like the most obvious one would be high fold to cbet%, or high raise% etc. and how that affects me.

    I’ll keep you posted on that. Graph and brief discussion on how my shot is going are coming by the end of the month.

     

    Regards

    Lukas

     

     

    ragaagaggaga
    Participant
    Post count: 30

    Hey everybody,

    Just realized that I have the possibility to filter for prize pool in PT4. Not sure whether that is well known but since I am a PT4 Idiot it was big news for me ;-)

    Why? Well, first off all I wanted to see how I run in multipliers (out of curiousity) but more than that I wanted to see a comparison of chipEV in different multipliers.

    Since the 2x, 4x and 6x are the bread and butter game I am not going to refer to any higher multis. First I checked chipEV, obviously. I must say I was shocked at first glance. ChipEV for 2x games is 116, for 4x games 95 and for 6x games it is only 64.  I went on to quickly calculate my standard deviation based on the almost 2.400 games that I have in my DB and was shocked again ;-)  It is at 455 chips but fits the figures that I saw in another spin n go thread. After that I almost started to calculate confidence intervals and doing some testing to see whether deviations are random or not…. but, nah. Screw that shit. ;-)

    The important thing is that I can review the games and that is exactly what I will do, starting with the 6x games where my chipEV was worst. Not that this necessarily means that I was playing bad but I have to start somewhere, right. Villains will focus a bit more in the games with higher multis so I believe that will play a role in the lower chipEV but I might ver well also do stupid stuff in those higher games, too. I’ll hopefully find out soon.

     

    Apart from that I made one major change a few days ago. After playing the first few spins at 7s I decided to switch rooms to winamax and play the 5EUR games over there. Why? First I can now clear a nice FDB over there which is obviously great. Second I am well over 200Buy-ins for the 5s and since I am a bankroll nit that is certainly not a bad thing, too. Third thing is that this way I have smaller steps between limits. That means after playing 3s at stars I am now playing 5s at winamax, can hopefully move up to 10s during the year and then finally switch back to 15s at stars.

    Regards

    Luke

     

    bencb789
    Keymaster
    Post count: 1331

    Hey ragaagaggaga,

    what spot is your analysis ? Is it HU 10/20 25bb ?

    What about hands like A2s-A7s with backdoor flushdraw? Or Kx ? There are a lot of hands missing.

    Does check-call mean, you checkback and call a Turnbet?

    The important thing is that I can review the games and that is exactly what I will do, starting with the 6x games where my chipEV was worst. Not that this necessarily means that I was playing bad but I have to start somewhere, right. Villains will focus a bit more in the games with higher multis so I believe that will play a role in the lower chipEV but I might ver well also do stupid stuff in those higher games, too. I’ll hopefully find out soon.

    Let me know. I am curious =)

    ragaagaggaga
    Participant
    Post count: 30

    Hey Ben,

     

    the spot is SB vs BB 25BB deep when we are 3 handed and BTN folds, so we are OOP. The hands that are missing in the card matrix are in my limping range 25BB deep in this situation.

    Check-call then means we check and call facing a bet on the flop.

    I will give some thoughts on my SB range 25BB deep when we are 3 handed, starting with few general observations: So first off all villains do no ISO SB limps nearly as much as they should. I saw Solutions with 50% iso frequency vs. a SB limp and at least in my small database that value is waaay lower. It was also lower over more than 10K HU hypers in my DB if that is also indicative of how villains play vs. SB limps when 3 handed.

    Second they fold slightly to much vs. openraises. Third, in the SB we are OOP as opposed to HU play where we open the pot and have position on the big blind.

    Given these factors my SB limping range is a lot of middling hands (the blacked out parts, basically without hands like T5o, 95o, etc.) Most of this hands play quite well postflop + most of them can call a non-all in iso. With the lower Ax I don’t want to raise because they miss the board quite often and don’t have that great playability so I prefer to play this hands in smaller pots.

    The minraising range (everything that is coloured in the range from the post above)  is mainly my value Holdings + few offsuit hands + lots of low, suited connectors + suited trash. Why? Well, on the one hand we gain equity with these hands because villains fold to raises to much. In addition to that we can’t limp-call non-all in isos with these hands (ofc we can’t call 3bets either but they do not 3bet as often as they iso).

    The low pocketpairs are limp/jams vs. a non all-in iso per default.  Hope that reasoning makes sense.

    On a sidenote: My default HU strat when we actually have Position is even more limp-heavy. ;-) One downside to limping that I see is that it takes a while to gain a read on whether villains are massively overfolding to minraises. There may be more issues with that strat ofc, that I am not aware of.

    Ofc this is my default strat that can change quickly and drastically based on reads.

    Regards

    Luke

     

    bencb789
    Keymaster
    Post count: 1331

    Your SB range looks really good! And I agree totally on the fact that the average player is not isoraising enough. Not even close!
    The big advantage of your strat, you can play a shit ton of hands, and this is a huge advantage and trums the “smaller” disadvantages.
    postflop I would check QQ/JJ for potcontrol and these hands need less protection than f.e 88

    ragaagaggaga
    Participant
    Post count: 30

    Hey everybody,

     

    The month is over and I finished my session so I thought I drop a monthly graph before I go to bed ;-)  First of all, thanks for commenting on my SB range, Great to hear, that you like it!

    Overall I am satisfied with my performance in March. I moved up from 3s to 7s/5s and my results so far are good. My chipEV over the month combined to 117.

    At the 7Dollar/5EUR Level my chipEV is 92 but over supersmall sample. While I like my chipEV I really don’t like the volume overall this month and especially after moving up. I played only 304 games from mid march until now. Not because I was working so much or travelling or whatever but because of an issue that I did not experienced in a long time: That is, I started to check my graph during sessions + I was reluctant to continue playing once I was ahead in money.

    I went over my what I call my “Mental Game Logfile” and realized that I had a note on exactly that issue few times. I will certainly work on that because honestly, running at >90 chipEV after moving up and not playing as much as possible is just super stupid.

    March graph:

     

    Regards

    Luke

    bencb789
    Keymaster
    Post count: 1331

    Sick graph. How is it going in April so far?

    ragaagaggaga
    Participant
    Post count: 30

    Thx Ben. I like the graph, too ;-)

     

    April is going good so far. Volume is fine with 553 games. ChipEV at the 5EUR games is even better than it was at 3s on PS. There is literally absolutely no difference in the stupidity level of villains. I expected to see some better guys but I obviously take it that way…

    It was bittersweet though for me this month so far. I hit my first jackpot and lost a cooler (fortunately “only” a 50x multiplier) and I also lost some 3-4 10x because I was somehow unable to win a flip. Life happens I guess. The good thing about this is that:

    1. I am actually still making decent profit (ROI is 6.7%)
    2. My mindset was really good when I lost those bigger multis. I literally briefly shook myself after loosing the 50x game and just continued my grind.

    Below is my chip graph for April so far:

     

     

    Also below is my money graph. Even with my chipEV 20 Buy-in swings are the norm in these games, which is kinda crazy. I can only imagine how swingy the games become  at higher stakes when edges are much smaller and one is able to make, say a healthy 70 chips in EV or so.

    Also when I played HU Hypers I cannot remeber swings much bigger than 20 buy-ins. I really would need to check my old DB. During 20K games or so and with an EVROI waaaay lower than right now it was much smoother than spins.

     

     

    Regards

    Luke

    bencb789
    Keymaster
    Post count: 1331

    sweet graphs. Any updates?

    okthatsfine
    Participant
    Post count: 1

    Mate, do you still playing? Can you say to me your username at pokerstars?

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