woyaokuaiParticipantOctober 1, 2016 at 2:51 amPost count: 14
Sth before about fishes being equally fishy on the 3.50s plus with reduced rakebencb789KeymasterOctober 2, 2016 at 10:42 pmPost count: 1331
yeah even 7.50 are still super fishyragaagaggagaParticipantFebruary 16, 2017 at 9:26 pmPost count: 30
I have to admit its been a while but finally I got my ass up and would like to continue to document and share my poker progress. Don’t want to dive to deep into why I stopped posting in here but let me just say that it was basically a lack of motivation and my lazyness. Anyways after donking around a for the past few months I made up my mind and started grinding spins and am currently playing 3$ games.
I realized that during my first try at spins my mindset was pretty bad, so I believe that was the reason I quit back then. I started playing spins in early January and have a sample of around 1.300 games so far. I must say that the opposition is beyond believe! It almost feels like Partypoker in 2006 :-)
Also my background in hu hypers helps of course. As you can see below I made 102 chipsev/tourney over 1.340 games. So I am actually quite confident that I could move up and beat the next level, too. Since during that 1.340 games and with my results I had swings of up to 40BI and my roll would be around 100BI for the next level I will continue to grind the 3$ games a bit longer and build a roll for 7s. I don’t feel to comfortable playing a new limit with 100BI when it comes to spins.
Even though the swings are crazy even with my results so far I am quite happy with how I handled myself sofar. No tilting at all and an overall good mindset. I’m confident to continue like this and keep posting here on a regular basis.
I’ll keep you guys posted (hopefully… ;-)
Regardsbencb789KeymasterFebruary 20, 2017 at 2:03 amPost count: 1331
Glad your are back. So you did quit hypers completely ?bencb789KeymasterFebruary 20, 2017 at 2:04 amPost count: 1331
Whats the reason why you loose motivation so quick?ragaagaggagaParticipantFebruary 20, 2017 at 7:31 pmPost count: 30
Really good question!
Here’s the thing: Apart from like 1,5 to 2 years where I was able to focus on hu hypers only I was always switching all different game formats. This was a huge mental leak imo. Everytime I got into a game I started playing it for a few weeks/months until the first setback just to switch games. This happenend over and over again until I got into huhypers. Then once I was at 15s I lost motivation because there are divisions from 30s and upwards and as parttime player I wasn’t really in the mood to battle for lobbies for 2-3 months or even longer to get into 30s.
It happened that I relapsed to my old habit and it took me a while to realize that. Now that I am back on track I keep a log on my mental state during poker to make sure things like that wont occur again.
Given the fact that I have some knowledge in shortstacked HU it was only logical to play spins. I just have to man up, study hard and keep my composure when it gets swingy :-)bencb789KeymasterFebruary 24, 2017 at 11:12 pmPost count: 1331
watch this and gg motivation =)ragaagaggagaParticipantFebruary 27, 2017 at 1:48 pmPost count: 30
Thanks for the link, Ben. Really appreciate it. As the month is (almost) over and I have a day off I thought I would just quickly drop my monthly graph and share some thoughts in here.February Graph insidePlayed 795 games with a chipev of 106 and ITM of 41%. I am quite satisfied with my results as well as with the volume. Usually going for 1.200 per month but February is short + I was travelling the last 4 days so almost 800 games are fine. My game is good and I am constantly studying and improving. Bankroll needs a few more bucks before I move to 7s but that shouldn’t take too long.I will follow up with a hh analysis later this week. I do it regularly anyways and posting it in here is a good way to keep track of everything.Regardsbencb789KeymasterFebruary 27, 2017 at 7:59 pmPost count: 1331
Grats so far. Looking forward seeing some of your hands =)ragaagaggagaParticipantMarch 5, 2017 at 6:40 pmPost count: 30
BTN: 520 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (SB): 510
BB: 470 (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20
Pre Flop: (pot: 30) Hero has A:diamond: 8:heart:
fold, Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20
Flop: (80, 2 players) 5:heart: K:spade: 7:heart:
Hero checks, BB checks
Hey there. Another week goes by and I would like to post some analysis I made earlier today. The situation is a common spot where I am not entirely sure whether I am better of betting or checking the flop as default strategy with my Ax type holdings.
In order to do some analysis I started with a quick database analysis. My current database (almost 2K games) shows that Villains flatcall the BB vs SB open around 69% of the time and 3bets 13% of the time. Based on this information I assume that they flat a range like this:
First part of my analysis was to calculate my EV of cbetting, which is EV (cbet) = EV (fold) * % (fold) + EV (call) * % (call)
with EV (fold) = our EV when Villain folds and
EV (call) = our EV when Villain calls our cbet.
The first part of the equation should be simple: Our EV when villain folds is (our stack + the pot) * our fold equity. Fold equity that we have here is 35.9%. Villain calls basically every pair, every draw incl.backdoors and A high.
So what we have sofar is EV (cbet) = 550*35,9% + EV (call) * 64,1% (call)
We should just quickly note that with this amount of Fold equity, we make automatic profit here with a cbet, even when we always loose if called. In that case our EV when called would be 430 Chips * 64,1%. Our total EV would then be 473 Chips which is > 470 Chips that we start the flop with. So cbetting is not bad. It is just the question whether checking is better?
Let’s a have a closer look at turn play and discuss briefly our options when our cbet gets called.
Once we check turn I assume Villain to bet Top Pair + and at least flushdraws and open-enders. On random turns we have around 24% equity vs that range. So even vs. ½ pot and purely based on equity our hand is a fold. Once villain starts to bet weaker hands like gutshots or even pure air our equity goes up (e.g. 33% if we add gutshots). So our equity on the turn would justify calling but at the same time we will be forced to fold a ton on rivers because we don’t have a strong drawing hand (a.k.a. drawing to the nuts). In other words: We won’t realize much (certainly nowhere near 100%) of our actual equity.
Once Villain checks back turn, our equity realization will of course be a bit better since then we a very likely up against a weak range, will more likely not face much aggression on rivers and/or can even bluffcatch rivers.
On the other hand firing a second barrel seems to be a terrible idea imo. 1. I don’t see us folding out many better hands (if anything some weak 5x might find a fold) 2. our Fold equity is only around 21% and 3. our equity vs. the turn calling range would be really shitty with only around 25%. In the end we would need to 3 barrel and I generally don’t want to do that with such a low equity hand and no drawing potential hand that beats villains draws when it goes to showdown.
So back to our EV when called.
The easiest way to calculate this is to look at the equity of our hand vs. villains calling range on the flop and make an assumption on our equity realization %. Of course I could do some models in CREV or whatever but I figured it’s not worth it (At least not at this time).
I have my equity vs. villains calling range at 37.4%. Based on the discussion above and our positional disadvantage, I’d say we realize 60% of our equity at best.
Coming back to our formula:
EV (call) = our stack + (the pot * our equity * our equity realization) = 430 + (160 * 37,4%*60%) = 466 Chips
Plugging everything together we get: EV (cbet) = 550 * 35.9% + 466 * 64.1% = 496 Chips.
In other words a cbet makes us around 26 chips compared to our starting stack on the flop.
Of course this is just a crude estimate but as already stated. It’s probably not worth the time to try and get a more accurate value on equity realization/calculating all the different scenarios in the game tree etc.
Now we have to calculate the EV of checking the flop.
For the EV of checking we need to think about the different scenarios that can occur. We can either check and villain bets. In that case check-calling on the flop seems mandatory to me. On the other hand villain might check back. In that case I would try to go to showdown with my Ax. So on the turn, when we check, we could again check/call. If it checks through I think check/calling the river with A looks like a valid option. Long story short: The general idea is to check/call once (no matter) on what street and then give up to further aggression.
EV (Check) = EV (Check/Call Flop) * % (Check/Call Flop) + EV (Check/Call Turn) * % (Check/Call Turn) + EV (Check/Call River) * % (Check/Call River) + EV (Checked through) * % (Checked through)
where EV (Check/Call Turn) means that the flop got checked through etc.
This calculation will certainly be nowhere near perfect and there are many variables to take into account, but it should help to understand what is going on.
I’ll leave all the math out here cause this post will become way to long. Fwiw one can of course play around with ranges that villains will bet on the flop when checked to, on the turn when it goes check/check on the flop and I check turn again etc. The other thing is to again take into account equity realization. Once we check/call the flop with equity that does not mean that we will realize all of this equity. Here I worked with 60% equity realization again.
At the end of the day EV (check) = 495 chips and thus almost equal to 496 chips for EV (cbet).
Thinking about it there are several merits to cbet readless imo. First of all we should have enough fold equity to make the cbet in itself profitable. Second we do fold out reasonable equity on the flop (around 22% in my calculations). Third we prevent ourselves from being bluffed off the best hand on later streets. It looks like cbet on the flop is a more “robust” strategy here (not sure if that is the right word for it).bencb789KeymasterMarch 5, 2017 at 11:34 pmPost count: 1331
Its really nice that you do these kind of analysis. But to be honest, Its not worth it imo.
First of all
I’d say we realize 60% of our equity at best.
why do you think so?
I think we have at best 40%. If he has draws/bluffs, he will moves us out of the pot on the turn.
If he checks, its very likely that he has the best hand and we have very little equity and additionally he could also bluff on the river with Non SDV Hands.
So the 40% comes from him checking down with a weaker holding (unlikely), us hitting our Ace on the river after him checking down (unlikely), or us hitting a draw on the turn or anykind of card that allows us to continue against a bet from villain (unlikely, and in case we are also behind).
All in all, 40% is VERY optimistic.
How do I know?
I know that for example, a hand like A6o preflop oop has an equity realization against a 44% Button range around 67% (just as an example). People overestimate Ax equity realization a lot.
And here, we will see 3 cards and are against a very loose range, yet ONLY 67% equity realization.
Thats the problem about these kind of analysis. By guessing wrong number wrong, your total analysis is wrong and you make wrong implications.
Its almost not possible to do these kind of analysis because of your lack of experience. And you dont need them for your limit. Believe me.
In general, you want to follow easy rules and instructions.
For this spot:
A high and backdoor draws = decent check/call hand (out of position).
So as played, I would check/call flop and reevaluate the turn.
If he keeps barreling, I check/fold the turn.
A high is my weakest holding on the turn-> fold.
Remember, we always want to let go of the weakest holding in our range.
Since I bet most Q and J highs on the flop -> A high is my weakest holding.bencb789KeymasterMarch 5, 2017 at 11:34 pmPost count: 1331
Also, preflop, most players rejam 22+ all day long blind vs blind, also ATo,ATs, AJ,A9s and KQs.
2000 hands is just not such a big sample and again, you come to wrong implications.ragaagaggagaParticipantMarch 13, 2017 at 9:39 pmPost count: 30
Heya. I’ve been on the road for a while with shitty internet connection in my hotel, so I couldn’t respond.
I am back at home with normal access to internet finally :-)
First of all: Big, Big thanks for your reply, Ben. Learnt a lot from that and really appreciate it!
I agree that I was playing the guessing game with the equity realization. Got interested in what would be my best line here and really got bogged down in details that are unnecessary for me.
It was still helpful in a sense that along with your answer, it made me think about how to better use my study time. My usual study-regime is filled with equity analysis (going over a certain number of boards and/or preflop scenarios and just guessing equities). I also work with Flopzilla to estimate fold equities on different boards for different scenarios (different stack sizes, single raised pots, limped pots etc.). Have an Excel where I plug in fold equities and find that really useful. (I’ll probably add more info about villains range, like how often he hits TP, draws, etc.)
I also just worked out an Excel template where I want to do some analysis on my own range for different flops. The aim is to keep it really simple and straight forward. Before I get another wall of text in here I’ll probably just take said Excel and the board from the hand above and post a screenshot here once I finished my analysis ;-)
By the way. It wasn’t 2000 hands but around 2k games. Just checked and the frequencies are based on almost 18k hands. ;-) I’m aware though that this is still not a huge sample by any means.
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